The future of Netflix may not be a streaming paradise

I’m sure many of you are aware that Netflix announced a price hike a couple of weeks ago that seemingly came out of the blue.

Netflix will no longer offer a $9.99 package of DVD-by-mail and unlimited streaming, the company said in a statement today. Instead, more than 23 million subscribers will pay $15.98 monthly beginning Sept. 1 if they choose both options, or $7.99 for just one.

bloomberg.com

Some people have speculated that this attempt by Netflix to kill off, or sell off, their mail-order DVD business by making it prohibitively expensive.  They think that most people, when faced with this price hike, will choose the streaming option and leave optical media behind even though there are a lot of titles that are not available via streaming on Netflix.

I’m not so sure that this is what’s going on.

Content costs and new competitors: As streaming video gets more popular, Netflix is facing two headwinds: studios and potential rivals.

Netflix was able to score comparatively cheap streaming deals when the service first launched, but now content providers want to be paid more for the content they’re providing. One analyst predicts Netflix’s streaming content licensing costs will rise from $180 million in 2010 to a whopping $1.98 billion in 2012.

CNN.com

If that prediction is true, and Netflix faces a ten fold increase in how much it spends on licensing streaming content, I think they are positioning DVD rentals as an emergency parachute if it becomes prohibitively expensive for them to offer the same size streaming library at the same price.

 

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L.A. Noire

Reports of insanely long hours, no OT and a never-ending ‘crunch time’.  Looks likes VFX peeps have another industry to commiserate with.

Why Did L.A. Noire Take Seven Years to Make?

Locally, when the tweets were reported by the Australian gaming industry hub Tsumea, several anonymous commenters stepped in to back up the reports: “I can certainly attest to the appalling working conditions, the angry and abusive boss and the ineffective leads who were completely unwilling to do anything to protect their team members,” wrote one. “It’s abhorrent that these young kids are being thrown into a 24/7 corpse grinder with perpetual crunch and weekend overtime,” wrote another.

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Not your father’s no-budget indie

How the Polish Brothers Are Raking It In With a Stealth, No Budget Movie

Call me jaded but I don’t think established Hollywood players leveraging their ‘old media’ success should really be championed as role models for ‘no-budget’ film making and ‘new media’ distribution.

The brothers said that their hotels and some meals were comped; they shot and edited with equipment they already owned; and they don’t consider the few grand worth of meals, taxis and the like to be part of an actual budget. “There was not one dime that came out of our pocket specifically for this movie — besides the food we ate, but we had to eat, anyway,” Michael said.

Hmmm… that sounds like a typical situation for a no-budget indie.  Spend thousands of dollars traveling and just happen to shoot a feature on the same trip.  When did proclaiming your ability to not pay anyone for anything related to getting your film made become such a badge of honor?  Is your time worth nothing?  Is your collaborators’ time worth nothing?

And once the film was finished, the changing face of distribution enabled them to bypass traditional models.

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The decision, though, brought with it real uncertainty.

“It just goes up, and then you have to find a way to tell the audience that it’s there,” said Michael. “You get a letter from the cable provider that says, ‘Your movie is now available in 45 million homes.’ That’s it.”

Mark continued, “I said, ‘OK, I’m gonna tweet it.’ Then I called Stana and told her to tweet it – and that’s when it took off.”

Have to find a way to tell your audience?  The female lead of your film has nearly 70,000 followers on Twitter!

So far the film has generated $200,000 and that’s quite a profit margin even if you account for things that the Polish Brothers aren’t accounting for like gear, lodging, food, travel, paying your actors, etc.,.  While that is certainly a nice ROI it isn’t, IMO, representative of a new ‘model for the masses’ at work anymore than when NIN and Radiohead released albums direct via the web a few years ago.  All it means is that wealthy, famous people with installed fan bases will have a pretty easy time self-funding and self-distributing their works compared to the rest of us.

The next time I’m looking for some DIY motivation I’ll revisit Four Eyed Monsters or 10 MPH.

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Daily Inspiration, July 11th, 2011

If you are bit of an editing geek and a bit of a techno geek you must read the book “Droid Maker” (DroidMaker.com) about the genesis of the technological side of Lucas Film (as well as the industry as a whole). At times the book goes pretty deep down the rabbit hole of geekdom but overall it is incredibly fascinating to get in on the ground floor of everything from NLE’s to CG graphics to Pixar to video games. These guys were skilled visionaries that persevered for decades before technology could make their dreams reality. It’s amazing to read this book and realize how such a relatively small group of people have had a massive impact. You would be hard pressed not to find some of their fingerprints on just about every part of the average person’s digital lifestyle.

What inspired you today?

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Daily Inspiration, July 8th, 2011

Driving through Los Angeles may not sound like it would inspire much of anything short of road rage and frustration but the area does have its moments.  On a regular basis I get to drive through Topanga Canyon and then take the PCH down the coast.  For those not familiar with Topanga Canyon it is a 10 mile, meandering climb and descent through a portion of the Santa Monica Mountains that feels more like driving through Appalachia than Los Angeles.  The drive through the twisting pass culminates with a final switch back that suddenly opens up to a beautiful view of the Pacific Ocean.

I can only imagine what it was like for early explorers all over the world, not just in what is now southern California, to spend days picking their through rocky canyons and then to suddenly have a vast ocean appear before them.  For most, I would assume, that would be the end of the line.  But for a few the seemingly endless ocean was the beginning of a new journey.  And it’s those crazy few that I find inspirational.  The ones that looked at the ocean and saw it as the path to a new land and not as a boundary to their current one.

 

What inspired you today?

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Daily Inspiration, July 7th, 2011

Last night I met up with @lorenwhite, @pietaricreative, @joshpetok and @michaelkammes (is it weird to refer to people by their twitter handles?) for drinks and just to hang out.  I’d not met any of them before but I wanted to get out of my comfort zone, get out of my typical daily routine and doing something a little different.  And sometimes just doing something a little different is enough to recharge your batteries and put a little spring back in your step.

 

What inspired you today?

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Daily Inspiration, July 6th, 2011

I’m not sure how many times I’ve watched this video but I’m always finding new things in it that I missed before.  Some things that caught my eye were the number of camera moves done in post, how much the fainting couch was altered and the dancers falling back onto the guys in green suits.

 

I also found a brief interview with the director, here. According to him the budget was only$30,000 but if counted all the favors it jumps up to $70,000.

 

What inspired you today?

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Fair Use and freedom of expression

Kind of Screwed

“Remember Kind of Bloop, the chiptune tribute to Miles Davis’ Kind of Blue that I produced? I went out of my way to make sure the entire project was above board, licensing all the cover songs from Miles Davis’s publisher and giving the total profits from the Kickstarter fundraiser to the five musicians that participated.

But there was one thing I never thought would be an issue: the cover art.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Copyright law, and to a greater extent Intellectual Property law as a whole, is a bag of hurt (to borrow a line from Steve Jobs).  Unfortunately it is a necessary bag of hurt.  It’s necessary because some people out there are dicks and will pilfer the blood, sweat and tears of others for their own gain.  There are also some other dicks out there that will wield the law as a weapon even though it was intended to be a shield.  This leaves the vast majority of us, whom aren’t dicks, stuck in the middle having to navigate an unpredictable river influenced by forces beyond our control.  It would be awesome if we all agreed not to be dicks to each other and then necessary evils like IP law wouldn’t have to exist.  I don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon though.

P.S.  Just to be clear, I’m not calling anyone involved in the linked to situation a dick.

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Daily Inspiration, July 5th, 2011

After taking a couple days off for the holiday Daily Inspiration is back.

Easily the best product ‘demo’ I’ve seen in a long time (possibly best I’ve ever seen). This is a great showcase of tools that are accessible to lots of people. Now if only getting the talent to use the tools was as simple.

Plot Device

Plot Device behind the scenes

What inspired you today?

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RAID is not a backup

On multiple occasions I’ve seen people use the term “backup” when talking about RAID 1 or RAID 5 and that is not correct. RAID 1 and RAID 5 provide redundancy but they do not provide a backup. Redundancy protects you against downtime in case of a drive failure. It does not product you against user error (accidental deletion), data corruption, acts of god (a lightening strike frying all your gear), etc.,. That is what a backup is for. A backup should be an exact copy of your data that is ideally stored in a different geographical location and should be checked periodically for data integrity. For convenience, and extra safety, you could make one copy to keep onsite and another copy to keep offsite.

Harddrives seem like they would make great backups because they have a large storage capacity and are relatively inexpensive. The downside is that all harddrives will fail even if they are kept on a shelf (this might actually accelerate their demise). If you are going to use a HDD as a backup definitely make two copies.

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